***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 3.6 10.1 79.5 55.9 47.3 0.9 2.8 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 9.4 82.6 59.8 47.7 1.8 4.0 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.4 10.3 81.5 55.4 47.0 2.3 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.6 20.7 11.3 91.5 63.5 50.0 5.8 17.4 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.8 11.4 95.5 64.4 50.2 3.1 9.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.0 13.2 92.5 59.6 45.5 5.7 8.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.3 9.2 83.1 61.7 48.5 1.2 5.1 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.2 29.3 14.5 109.9 64.4 53.6 10.4 19.7 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.5 12.1 100.6 63.6 51.9 3.6 10.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.9 14.2 14.6 108.1 65.0 53.6 3.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.3 12.9 101.0 65.1 49.7 3.5 11.0 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 15.9 12.5 106.8 64.0 51.5 5.6 9.4 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 18.3 12.0 93.4 63.0 47.5 3.6 10.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.1 13.7 91.6 58.8 50.2 2.7 6.2 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.0 8.7 10.1 86.3 64.9 45.6 1.2 4.6 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 12.1 99.5 65.6 49.5 5.5 9.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.6 9.5 89.2 63.9 51.2 1.7 4.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 16.7 15.2 102.5 64.3 53.2 5.1 11.6 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 9.6 82.2 58.1 47.3 1.3 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 25.9 16.3 103.2 64.1 52.5 8.8 15.3 28.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.7 9.9 11.3 91.2 61.9 49.3 3.4 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.9 10.6 93.9 62.8 49.9 3.4 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 5.8 9.9 80.7 56.2 47.3 1.9 4.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.8 12.9 91.1 59.3 51.0 2.6 8.3 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.8 11.4 81.0 59.8 47.1 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.8 11.4 91.4 64.0 46.6 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.5 10.9 79.0 59.0 47.3 1.7 3.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 14.0 10.7 92.3 65.6 48.3 2.5 6.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.2 26.6 15.9 100.5 63.0 52.0 11.9 19.5 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.8 9.4 79.7 57.0 46.7 1.4 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------