***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.2 5.5 45.1 45.9 33.8 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 7.3 5.1 42.7 46.2 34.3 3.2 7.8 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.6 5.2 45.6 43.6 34.7 2.7 7.0 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.7 39.9 42.3 31.1 3.1 7.2 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.0 6.0 4.5 40.8 43.7 28.9 3.1 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.2 2.8 4.4 32.4 33.4 27.4 2.8 4.6 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.5 5.0 41.8 44.5 34.6 3.9 6.6 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.6 6.2 5.3 38.6 36.2 26.9 5.5 14.5 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.6 7.0 4.9 41.8 43.1 31.6 5.8 8.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.0 8.8 5.7 40.9 40.3 29.0 5.7 12.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.6 5.9 4.2 37.5 41.2 28.6 3.5 7.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.3 3.0 4.2 37.0 37.5 27.2 2.1 9.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.6 3.2 4.1 34.9 40.6 28.4 2.9 7.0 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 5.0 10.7 6.8 49.1 41.0 30.9 7.5 13.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.6 4.0 40.8 51.1 35.6 0.3 2.5 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.7 3.3 4.3 37.5 39.7 30.7 2.0 5.6 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.7 8.2 5.5 46.3 47.8 35.6 5.4 8.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.0 7.2 47.1 40.5 30.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.3 7.5 5.3 44.1 45.1 34.3 5.7 8.4 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 5.8 8.1 7.0 43.3 35.0 28.2 7.9 16.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.1 5.1 44.8 45.6 33.1 3.2 6.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 7.0 13.1 6.0 48.5 48.6 34.8 8.3 13.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.2 9.9 5.6 47.5 44.5 35.2 5.7 11.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.9 9.3 6.3 48.7 43.1 32.9 6.3 10.6 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.8 5.2 5.5 44.9 46.8 31.9 1.8 6.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 1.3 0.5 2.9 27.0 33.6 23.3 0.5 5.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.7 5.4 43.1 45.3 32.9 1.5 10.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.4 4.3 38.2 44.3 32.9 1.7 6.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.4 11.2 7.1 45.6 38.8 29.7 7.9 17.5 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.1 5.0 42.7 45.3 34.7 4.0 8.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------