***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 24.8 25.5 26.3 1.5 79.0 71.3 23.3 23.7 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.5 26.3 1.6 79.9 71.5 23.7 24.6 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.6 26.8 1.8 82.5 74.3 23.9 24.3 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 18.5 19.8 24.9 2.4 86.6 80.7 16.7 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 26.0 27.0 25.3 2.0 82.9 75.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 24.8 26.0 23.0 2.0 84.9 77.5 23.2 24.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.6 26.2 1.5 78.2 71.7 23.2 24.5 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 14.0 15.4 23.6 2.2 84.5 77.5 13.1 13.4 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 25.6 26.8 25.9 2.1 83.4 77.4 23.8 24.2 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 25.2 26.4 24.4 2.1 82.9 76.9 23.5 24.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 25.8 26.8 25.4 2.1 83.7 77.2 23.9 24.6 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 24.9 26.4 24.8 2.3 85.4 78.9 23.5 23.8 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 26.1 26.7 24.5 1.9 80.8 74.8 24.5 25.0 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 25.5 26.3 25.2 1.9 83.1 75.2 23.6 24.3 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 26.1 27.4 26.4 2.5 88.5 82.2 24.5 24.9 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 26.4 27.8 25.1 2.3 84.5 78.2 25.1 25.4 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.8 25.9 1.4 76.3 70.4 22.7 24.0 24.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 24.2 25.2 23.7 2.2 84.0 77.6 22.8 23.2 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.8 26.6 1.7 81.5 73.3 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 20.3 21.3 21.4 2.0 83.3 76.6 19.1 19.5 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 25.3 26.7 26.2 1.7 81.6 73.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.8 25.7 1.3 75.5 68.9 23.4 24.5 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.7 27.0 2.2 85.7 78.0 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 25.1 26.3 25.5 2.2 84.4 77.9 23.6 24.0 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 25.7 26.6 24.9 1.5 78.5 71.6 23.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 25.5 27.3 24.5 2.4 86.3 80.5 24.2 24.7 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.8 25.4 1.4 77.6 70.8 23.2 24.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 25.8 27.3 25.6 2.5 87.7 81.5 24.5 25.3 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 19.5 20.2 22.8 2.0 82.4 76.2 18.4 18.7 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.3 26.4 26.4 1.5 80.7 71.5 23.5 24.3 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------