***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 24.2 23.1 24.3 1.2 61.4 60.3 22.0 22.9 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 25.2 23.6 24.3 1.2 60.2 60.1 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.3 24.2 24.8 1.4 62.4 61.1 22.4 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.5 18.1 23.1 2.0 70.5 66.4 15.7 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 25.6 25.6 23.3 1.6 66.7 63.7 23.3 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 25.0 24.9 21.1 1.7 68.2 63.8 21.7 23.8 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 24.7 23.4 24.2 1.2 60.9 60.7 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.4 21.7 1.7 68.3 63.9 11.9 13.4 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.0 23.6 1.7 67.3 63.4 23.1 24.0 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.7 24.8 22.4 1.7 67.3 63.4 22.2 23.7 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.3 23.1 1.7 68.5 64.4 22.7 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 24.8 24.7 22.9 1.9 69.4 64.9 22.2 24.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.1 22.2 1.7 68.7 63.7 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.4 23.0 1.4 62.5 60.5 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 25.6 25.6 23.7 1.9 71.1 66.8 22.6 24.4 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 26.7 26.8 23.0 1.9 70.4 65.3 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.9 23.9 1.1 60.5 59.5 21.3 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 23.8 24.0 22.0 1.7 66.2 63.1 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 24.9 23.1 24.5 1.3 61.2 60.5 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 20.2 19.4 1.6 64.2 62.5 17.5 19.5 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 25.1 24.8 24.1 1.4 64.0 61.3 22.8 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.7 23.8 1.1 61.1 58.9 22.0 22.8 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 25.1 23.8 24.7 1.5 63.9 61.7 22.2 22.8 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 24.9 24.5 23.3 1.7 65.7 62.5 22.0 23.4 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 24.7 24.1 22.9 1.3 64.6 61.6 22.5 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 25.8 25.5 22.7 2.1 72.3 66.8 22.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.8 23.8 23.5 1.2 62.8 61.0 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 25.9 25.6 23.3 2.0 70.7 66.7 22.8 24.7 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.5 20.9 1.6 64.6 62.2 17.5 19.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 24.7 23.4 24.3 1.2 60.2 60.3 22.1 22.9 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------