***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.7 26.1 25.9 1.4 67.3 60.2 21.7 25.1 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.9 26.0 25.8 1.3 62.8 59.5 22.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 26.3 26.5 26.5 1.6 68.9 61.6 22.8 25.6 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.9 24.8 2.3 76.3 67.2 15.0 17.7 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 26.9 26.9 24.9 1.8 71.2 63.5 23.2 26.2 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 25.5 26.0 22.7 1.9 72.2 65.0 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.8 25.8 1.3 65.1 60.2 22.4 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.4 23.4 2.0 70.4 64.5 12.5 14.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 26.4 26.5 25.3 1.9 70.5 63.3 22.8 25.8 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.0 24.1 1.9 69.7 63.7 22.8 25.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.6 24.9 2.0 71.6 64.6 22.9 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.9 24.7 2.1 72.1 65.4 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 26.4 27.0 23.8 1.8 67.6 63.6 23.5 26.0 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.3 26.0 24.5 1.5 65.7 61.0 23.3 24.8 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 26.8 27.1 25.5 2.3 77.9 68.8 22.9 26.0 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 27.4 27.9 24.7 2.1 72.4 65.7 24.0 26.4 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.8 25.4 1.1 60.7 58.5 21.9 24.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.5 23.6 1.9 68.4 63.4 22.5 23.7 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.7 25.8 26.1 1.4 64.6 60.3 22.3 25.1 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 21.1 21.3 21.1 1.8 65.9 63.2 18.5 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.2 26.6 25.7 1.6 68.7 61.3 22.8 25.7 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.5 25.2 1.0 59.3 57.9 22.7 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.3 25.8 26.3 1.7 68.0 62.1 22.7 25.0 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.0 24.9 1.9 69.6 62.9 22.6 25.1 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.4 24.4 1.5 68.4 61.1 22.0 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.8 24.3 2.2 72.3 66.8 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.5 26.3 25.0 1.3 66.6 60.1 22.2 25.1 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 26.8 27.2 25.2 2.4 77.0 68.3 23.3 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 20.6 20.7 22.5 1.7 66.4 62.6 18.1 19.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.9 25.9 1.3 63.7 60.1 22.6 25.0 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------