***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.1 26.7 1.5 69.4 65.4 22.9 24.3 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.2 26.6 1.4 68.2 64.4 22.6 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.6 27.2 1.9 71.7 67.7 23.2 24.4 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 19.2 20.0 25.4 2.6 79.7 73.9 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 27.1 27.5 25.8 2.2 74.1 70.1 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 25.1 26.1 23.7 2.4 79.0 72.0 22.2 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 25.6 26.2 26.5 1.4 70.3 64.6 22.8 23.8 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 15.0 15.9 24.0 2.5 77.4 71.0 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 26.4 27.1 26.5 2.4 75.2 71.0 22.6 24.1 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 26.0 26.7 24.9 2.4 76.2 70.5 22.4 24.1 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 26.6 26.9 26.0 2.4 75.7 71.1 22.3 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 25.7 26.5 25.4 2.6 78.0 72.4 21.9 23.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.6 25.2 2.1 74.7 68.7 23.4 24.4 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.3 25.6 1.9 71.6 67.5 22.8 24.4 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 26.7 27.7 27.2 2.7 82.9 75.3 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 27.4 28.2 25.7 2.5 77.4 71.5 23.6 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 25.2 25.3 26.0 1.2 66.7 62.5 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 25.0 25.7 24.1 2.4 75.7 70.0 21.7 22.9 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 26.0 26.0 26.9 1.6 70.1 66.0 22.3 24.4 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.3 22.2 21.9 2.3 76.1 69.3 17.7 18.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.8 26.8 1.9 71.3 67.6 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 26.0 25.5 25.9 1.0 66.7 61.2 22.7 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 26.4 26.9 27.4 2.2 74.2 69.7 22.4 24.3 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 25.8 26.4 26.0 2.3 74.4 70.0 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 26.4 26.1 25.4 1.6 70.0 65.7 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.1 27.2 25.0 2.7 80.4 73.0 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.4 25.8 1.5 69.1 64.7 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 26.8 27.4 26.2 2.7 81.5 75.0 23.3 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.6 20.8 23.1 2.2 74.1 68.8 17.3 18.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 25.8 26.6 26.7 1.5 69.0 65.2 22.7 24.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------