***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.3 15.8 1.0 75.7 70.1 11.5 11.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.3 15.4 0.8 72.7 67.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.7 16.1 1.1 79.7 73.0 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 10.2 10.7 13.4 1.2 83.2 75.3 8.6 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 11.2 11.4 13.6 1.0 79.2 72.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.9 11.5 1.0 81.7 73.4 9.4 10.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 12.4 12.6 15.6 1.0 75.8 70.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.0 11.4 0.9 78.4 72.5 5.1 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 12.4 12.7 13.8 1.0 81.1 73.7 11.3 11.9 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.2 12.2 0.9 78.6 72.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 11.7 11.9 13.0 0.9 79.1 71.7 10.7 11.2 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 10.3 10.8 12.3 1.1 81.6 74.6 9.6 10.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.3 11.6 0.7 72.5 67.5 10.2 10.6 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.0 13.7 0.9 79.0 72.2 11.6 12.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.5 14.9 1.3 84.6 78.3 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 12.3 12.5 12.5 0.9 79.2 72.0 11.5 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.6 15.1 0.8 73.2 67.8 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.3 11.5 1.0 79.2 73.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.4 15.5 0.9 75.5 69.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.2 9.6 0.9 77.0 72.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.3 15.0 1.0 77.8 71.6 11.2 11.3 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.9 15.2 0.8 74.3 68.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.8 15.7 1.2 81.6 75.1 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.1 13.6 1.1 81.9 74.7 11.0 11.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.4 14.6 0.9 74.5 68.6 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 11.2 11.5 11.5 0.9 79.5 71.4 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.8 15.1 0.9 74.1 68.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 10.9 12.1 13.8 1.3 85.6 77.3 10.0 10.4 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 9.6 9.8 10.8 0.9 77.5 72.0 8.9 9.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.8 15.7 0.9 74.4 69.4 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------