***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.5 14.4 1.0 64.1 61.9 9.9 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.4 14.0 0.7 58.9 58.7 10.1 10.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.1 14.6 1.0 65.1 63.4 12.2 12.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.7 11.9 1.1 66.4 65.4 7.4 8.4 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.6 12.0 1.0 65.4 63.9 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.2 10.2 1.1 68.2 66.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.1 14.2 0.8 61.8 60.1 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.0 10.1 1.1 67.5 66.8 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.0 11.5 12.2 1.0 66.9 64.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.3 10.8 1.0 66.2 64.7 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.1 11.4 1.0 65.9 64.9 9.6 10.6 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.7 10.7 1.1 68.3 67.2 8.6 9.3 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 11.0 10.8 10.0 0.9 60.7 63.4 8.9 10.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 12.2 11.9 12.2 0.9 63.8 62.5 10.7 11.3 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.4 13.1 1.3 72.4 67.7 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.8 10.8 1.0 64.5 65.0 10.6 11.1 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.6 13.7 0.6 57.6 57.5 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.7 9.9 1.0 65.9 64.5 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.9 14.1 0.8 60.0 59.9 9.9 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 6.8 6.5 8.1 1.0 65.2 64.7 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.1 13.6 1.0 65.6 62.9 10.2 10.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.7 13.6 0.7 56.8 58.3 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.4 14.1 1.0 63.3 62.9 9.8 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.4 11.9 1.0 66.4 64.4 10.0 10.4 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.0 13.1 1.0 63.6 62.5 10.6 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.8 10.0 1.0 66.2 65.0 9.5 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.8 13.7 1.0 63.3 61.6 10.2 11.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.8 12.2 1.2 69.4 67.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.7 9.4 1.0 65.9 64.4 8.1 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 14.3 0.8 61.2 60.4 10.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------