***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 12.9 12.8 15.4 0.9 66.3 59.0 10.6 12.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.9 12.2 15.0 0.7 65.0 58.1 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.3 15.6 1.0 69.6 61.6 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.0 10.8 12.7 0.9 69.8 60.8 8.1 10.0 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 11.7 11.3 12.7 0.8 67.5 60.3 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.5 9.8 10.9 0.8 65.5 61.3 8.7 9.4 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.9 12.8 15.3 0.9 65.5 60.0 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.9 6.7 10.7 0.6 60.2 59.7 4.7 5.7 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.8 13.1 0.9 68.4 61.2 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 12.4 12.1 11.5 0.7 62.9 59.8 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.2 12.1 0.7 63.6 59.8 10.1 11.0 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.4 9.9 11.3 0.6 61.8 59.9 8.6 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.3 10.6 0.4 59.4 57.0 9.2 9.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.9 12.8 13.1 0.7 65.2 60.6 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.5 14.0 1.1 72.3 63.3 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.5 11.5 0.7 63.6 59.6 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.3 12.6 14.7 0.6 61.8 57.7 11.3 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.1 10.8 10.7 0.6 62.8 59.6 9.1 9.8 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.0 12.7 15.1 0.7 65.6 59.0 10.8 12.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 6.6 8.6 0.4 55.6 57.4 5.6 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.1 14.5 0.9 69.0 60.5 10.4 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.3 11.7 14.6 0.6 59.8 58.1 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.4 12.5 15.1 0.9 68.5 61.7 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.5 12.8 0.8 67.3 61.8 10.5 11.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.6 12.5 13.9 0.8 65.5 58.2 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.5 10.6 0.4 60.2 57.1 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.1 14.6 0.8 65.5 58.6 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.3 13.0 1.0 70.8 62.4 8.8 9.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.2 10.1 0.5 60.9 58.8 8.4 9.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.0 15.3 0.8 66.5 59.3 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------