***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.7 16.0 0.8 71.2 60.7 10.5 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.8 15.6 0.6 67.5 58.7 10.5 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.6 16.3 0.9 74.5 63.9 12.4 13.8 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.4 13.7 1.0 72.6 65.4 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.7 14.1 0.9 69.7 63.5 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.2 11.8 1.0 71.0 66.3 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.0 15.9 0.8 69.6 60.9 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.2 11.7 0.8 66.2 62.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.6 14.2 1.0 71.0 64.9 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.4 12.5 0.8 67.1 62.6 10.2 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.1 13.5 0.8 66.6 63.0 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.9 12.7 1.0 69.8 65.6 8.7 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.4 12.3 0.7 66.0 62.2 9.7 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.5 14.1 0.9 73.6 65.0 10.7 12.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.7 15.4 1.2 76.8 69.1 11.8 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.0 13.1 0.9 67.7 64.5 10.7 11.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.0 15.3 0.6 65.1 58.5 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.7 12.0 0.9 70.6 65.4 8.9 10.7 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.9 15.8 0.7 70.3 61.0 11.0 11.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.9 10.1 0.8 68.4 64.5 5.4 6.1 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.4 15.3 0.8 71.2 62.5 10.1 11.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.3 15.5 0.7 68.6 60.9 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.9 16.0 1.0 75.8 65.4 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.7 13.1 14.1 1.0 74.2 66.7 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.7 14.9 0.7 67.3 59.7 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.8 12.1 1.0 68.8 65.6 9.8 10.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.7 15.4 0.7 68.3 59.4 10.4 11.7 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.2 14.2 1.1 75.0 68.3 9.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.6 11.2 0.8 68.7 63.7 8.0 8.9 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.1 16.0 0.7 70.3 60.6 11.2 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------