***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 13.9 14.3 17.2 1.2 70.2 68.2 12.8 13.8 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 13.8 14.4 16.9 1.2 71.3 68.9 11.8 13.7 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 48 52 100 16.5 17.0 17.6 1.3 75.5 71.0 14.3 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.3 13.0 15.4 1.6 78.8 75.4 9.8 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.8 15.7 1.3 73.2 71.2 10.8 12.6 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.7 12.8 1.1 75.3 69.7 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 14.0 14.9 17.2 1.3 72.1 70.4 12.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.5 13.1 1.2 77.7 72.4 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.8 15.7 1.3 75.8 72.4 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.5 14.0 1.2 75.3 71.8 12.4 13.3 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 14.0 14.5 15.2 1.1 74.5 71.2 11.8 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.4 13.0 14.4 1.5 81.9 76.2 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.0 13.5 0.6 60.9 60.0 11.0 12.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 14.7 15.1 15.3 1.1 73.9 69.9 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 15.9 16.3 17.2 1.7 85.6 79.6 13.4 14.8 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.1 14.5 1.1 73.0 69.4 12.5 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 14.6 15.0 16.8 1.4 74.9 71.3 12.7 14.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.9 13.4 1.2 77.1 72.0 10.8 11.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.6 17.2 1.4 74.4 71.1 12.6 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.8 11.7 1.3 79.2 72.8 6.9 8.1 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 13.1 14.5 16.6 1.1 71.2 68.9 11.9 12.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 13.7 14.0 17.1 1.3 73.1 71.0 11.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.6 17.6 1.7 81.5 76.2 12.0 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.8 15.5 1.3 79.0 73.1 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 13.9 14.6 16.3 1.0 69.7 66.7 12.3 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 13.4 13.6 13.2 1.0 72.1 67.2 11.5 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 14.1 14.9 16.6 1.1 69.8 66.5 11.7 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.7 14.4 15.8 1.7 82.9 77.5 10.9 12.0 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.6 12.7 1.2 76.8 71.1 9.8 10.9 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 14.1 14.9 17.4 1.3 71.6 69.3 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------