***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 61.6 56.4 32.6 76.4 45.1 41.4 27.6 57.8 62.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 32.7 47.2 31.0 75.5 44.4 39.8 37.4 51.4 55.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 61.3 54.1 33.5 76.3 46.8 41.1 28.5 57.1 69.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 36.4 54.4 36.8 82.5 48.9 44.2 39.4 59.3 77.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 29.3 48.8 36.5 85.0 51.1 44.5 30.1 47.2 66.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.7 42.3 45.7 91.6 56.6 47.4 31.4 38.6 52.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 29.8 38.9 29.4 73.5 43.9 38.7 30.6 45.8 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 57.6 82.5 46.0 93.0 54.8 48.8 56.7 72.7 101.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 38.1 49.9 36.8 82.1 48.1 43.4 38.5 53.3 65.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 37.1 52.6 45.1 87.1 49.8 45.6 34.1 52.7 71.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 29.5 48.7 37.9 88.5 52.7 45.5 34.3 45.3 64.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 33.9 48.1 38.2 92.3 54.8 47.8 33.1 47.1 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 52.7 52.6 43.2 99.3 58.7 48.9 36.4 46.7 65.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 43.8 62.1 48.3 84.5 47.9 43.5 45.5 64.3 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 20.1 35.5 32.2 80.6 52.6 44.2 22.4 35.1 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.1 49.4 39.1 92.3 55.8 46.2 31.4 40.0 55.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 30.8 36.8 29.4 72.9 42.2 38.8 32.0 43.3 55.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 45.3 63.1 50.9 88.5 48.2 45.8 42.8 65.9 77.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 34.1 43.3 33.1 77.8 45.7 41.0 35.9 47.2 64.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 73.0 70.4 59.8 100.7 58.7 52.2 56.3 65.3 79.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 29.1 46.3 34.9 80.6 49.2 42.6 27.2 47.6 73.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 51.5 41.6 33.3 76.3 45.3 40.2 32.5 46.5 61.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 52.0 37.8 35.8 79.0 45.2 41.9 32.3 42.5 62.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 42.9 59.5 43.9 83.6 46.1 43.4 38.5 64.6 86.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 33.2 48.8 35.8 78.0 45.1 41.4 37.8 52.8 63.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.5 36.5 40.3 96.3 57.8 49.8 24.3 34.2 43.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 58.0 50.3 34.8 77.1 44.6 41.4 35.8 51.2 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 22.9 37.2 35.9 84.1 52.1 44.7 19.6 36.7 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 64.2 94.1 54.3 91.5 51.3 47.0 71.5 94.0 117.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 32.2 35.7 31.6 75.6 45.4 40.4 29.3 40.6 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------