***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.5 9.7 81.0 60.5 45.1 1.0 11.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.4 10.2 92.7 62.0 47.9 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.3 9.8 79.4 60.1 47.8 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.5 8.0 60.2 57.0 46.4 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.0 5.9 8.0 62.3 57.4 46.8 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.4 8.9 67.5 55.3 43.3 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.3 10.6 99.3 64.4 47.6 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 12.8 9.3 69.6 55.1 44.8 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.9 6.8 8.7 65.7 57.4 46.2 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.3 6.5 9.5 66.7 54.1 44.5 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.0 8.9 7.2 61.2 55.5 45.2 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.5 7.2 63.0 57.7 45.1 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.5 7.4 62.9 59.5 45.5 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.1 12.5 83.2 58.2 47.9 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.1 7.4 62.7 61.2 47.8 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.1 3.6 6.9 59.0 57.7 46.2 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.0 9.8 92.5 60.6 47.5 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 7.7 11.0 71.2 52.8 45.2 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.5 10.3 90.3 62.0 48.0 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.6 13.3 83.2 57.9 45.6 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.0 9.2 71.6 59.0 46.6 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.8 10.5 10.4 90.0 61.1 46.4 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.9 10.5 88.1 62.0 49.3 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 6.2 10.6 73.8 55.1 46.4 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.9 9.8 75.4 59.4 46.9 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.6 6.8 60.1 57.1 43.5 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.0 10.3 83.2 61.2 46.5 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.9 7.2 58.2 58.5 46.3 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.5 13.9 11.8 75.4 54.5 45.5 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.4 10.3 90.4 62.2 48.2 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------