***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 18.4 8.1 90.1 63.1 47.1 1.5 8.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 15.8 7.7 88.0 64.8 47.1 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 9.7 8.7 89.0 60.3 46.1 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 16.0 10.7 110.3 69.2 52.0 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.4 17.4 10.8 108.7 68.3 50.5 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.6 12.4 101.4 66.3 49.6 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.7 7.1 83.0 63.1 47.5 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 21.3 12.4 106.6 64.8 51.2 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 15.5 11.1 103.8 66.8 49.8 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.6 14.4 12.2 99.3 62.9 49.0 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.7 12.3 10.4 106.5 67.1 49.5 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.2 10.9 111.8 67.2 50.6 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.1 12.8 12.5 119.8 69.1 52.3 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.6 19.5 12.4 91.4 60.0 45.6 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 11.0 8.8 99.1 69.4 50.7 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.3 11.1 113.1 67.7 52.1 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.3 21.8 7.9 87.7 63.7 48.4 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.4 13.5 96.9 60.5 49.0 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.0 8.0 88.7 64.4 46.1 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 19.2 15.4 104.1 62.7 50.9 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.6 20.0 10.5 108.5 66.9 50.0 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.8 15.0 9.1 96.5 65.7 47.0 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.9 17.3 8.4 84.0 61.0 43.7 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 19.0 12.1 96.0 61.1 47.4 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 20.6 9.8 100.6 65.0 48.9 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.3 9.2 11.2 113.3 72.6 52.4 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 16.7 8.7 91.9 63.1 47.9 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.4 10.1 105.9 68.7 51.4 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.5 24.8 13.9 97.1 60.4 48.9 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.4 7.6 85.3 63.2 46.1 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------