***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.3 8.1 70.8 60.4 44.9 0.1 4.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.8 7.1 8.1 76.5 60.4 45.8 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.3 8.3 73.5 60.1 46.0 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.2 18.1 8.7 74.4 63.0 47.0 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.2 7.7 69.1 57.0 41.2 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.7 9.8 78.3 59.2 43.4 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.8 6.9 66.8 56.7 40.8 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.7 22.4 10.3 88.9 59.1 45.8 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.5 8.5 76.9 59.2 47.5 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.9 10.3 83.4 58.5 44.8 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.2 13.6 8.7 74.6 57.4 38.3 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.2 9.3 91.0 61.4 45.5 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 18.0 9.8 86.5 62.1 43.0 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.7 12.5 87.5 60.0 47.4 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.0 6.6 7.8 70.0 66.0 42.2 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.3 9.3 82.9 61.4 44.0 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.4 7.8 77.1 59.1 45.7 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.3 11.9 87.6 57.7 48.4 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.8 8.6 78.4 61.3 46.9 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 17.3 12.3 88.7 54.8 47.4 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.3 8.2 72.8 59.4 47.2 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.9 9.1 82.1 60.8 45.1 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.3 9.3 80.0 61.2 48.4 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.7 10.9 83.4 58.9 46.8 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.1 8.0 7.9 61.2 56.7 41.5 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.3 9.8 86.3 65.8 44.6 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.8 8.2 65.9 57.5 44.2 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.0 8.3 74.2 63.9 44.6 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 23.0 13.2 91.2 56.9 48.8 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.3 8.6 8.1 73.5 60.2 44.1 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------