***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 10.6 8.9 6.7 65.4 57.9 49.1 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.8 7.3 5.1 47.0 49.1 41.0 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.9 6.8 64.0 54.1 47.3 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.6 19.1 9.5 94.6 66.1 54.5 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.6 20.1 10.0 111.0 69.8 57.3 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.4 17.5 14.5 122.1 71.8 60.7 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.0 5.4 4.8 45.8 47.7 41.3 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 19.7 28.2 14.0 108.7 64.9 55.2 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.1 8.5 86.6 61.7 50.3 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.9 22.5 13.1 101.2 63.7 53.8 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.5 20.6 11.5 125.1 71.4 59.3 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 14.1 16.0 10.8 109.4 66.4 55.8 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 31.1 13.5 135.8 74.5 61.9 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.1 10.8 76.2 57.9 46.2 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 8.3 8.3 100.9 72.8 55.6 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.5 23.0 11.9 123.2 70.9 60.3 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.5 7.3 4.0 37.0 43.0 35.0 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 14.5 98.4 64.2 52.1 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.8 6.3 55.7 51.6 43.2 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.5 23.9 18.8 129.0 71.4 59.2 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.6 6.7 7.1 73.7 56.0 47.3 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.6 11.3 4.6 40.0 44.8 36.4 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.7 11.5 7.6 64.6 53.0 45.3 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 19.3 10.4 82.7 60.5 49.8 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 9.0 15.3 8.3 81.1 63.0 52.6 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 18.2 18.2 12.6 135.1 72.5 63.4 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.2 13.3 7.5 70.5 59.2 50.2 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.8 15.8 10.2 108.2 71.7 56.9 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.4 15.3 102.9 65.3 52.7 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.9 8.0 5.7 53.8 52.7 44.7 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------