***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 24.9 25.3 26.5 1.1 69.6 65.9 23.4 23.9 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 25.5 25.2 26.4 1.1 69.3 65.1 23.9 24.7 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 24.6 24.9 26.4 0.9 65.8 62.2 24.0 24.3 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 17.5 18.2 23.9 0.8 63.1 61.2 16.8 17.3 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 25.0 24.7 23.9 0.0 51.2 51.5 24.5 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 24.2 24.2 21.7 0.1 53.9 52.5 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 47 53 100 25.1 25.0 26.4 1.1 70.0 66.1 23.2 24.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.6 21.7 -0.4 46.1 45.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.5 24.4 0.1 51.9 52.3 23.9 24.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.1 22.6 -0.2 47.8 47.5 23.5 24.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 24.9 24.6 23.7 -0.1 49.6 49.6 24.0 24.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 24.2 23.9 23.0 -0.1 49.9 49.3 23.6 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 25.4 25.1 23.0 -0.2 48.6 48.1 24.8 25.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.4 23.9 0.1 52.5 51.7 23.7 24.3 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 25.2 25.8 25.7 1.3 68.7 67.3 24.7 25.0 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 25.9 25.8 23.6 0.1 52.7 52.0 25.2 25.7 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 24.1 24.9 26.0 1.1 68.7 65.3 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.4 21.8 -0.3 46.8 46.0 23.0 23.4 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.6 25.3 26.4 1.0 68.3 63.9 23.7 24.3 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.5 19.4 -0.7 41.0 40.3 19.2 19.8 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.8 24.7 25.4 0.3 55.7 55.4 24.1 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 24.6 25.4 25.9 1.0 68.1 63.8 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 24.7 25.2 26.3 1.0 66.5 63.2 23.5 24.5 25.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.4 24.2 23.9 0.1 53.1 51.9 23.7 24.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 24.7 25.0 24.5 0.5 58.7 58.0 23.5 24.4 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 25.0 24.9 22.9 0.1 51.5 52.0 24.4 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 24.7 25.0 25.5 0.9 66.3 63.3 23.5 24.5 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 25.4 25.5 24.5 0.8 62.7 61.7 24.6 25.3 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 18.7 20.8 -0.6 43.6 42.6 18.5 18.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 25.3 25.1 26.6 1.2 70.1 66.1 23.5 24.5 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------