***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 23.2 23.2 24.5 1.1 62.6 58.6 21.8 22.8 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.3 24.4 1.0 59.7 57.9 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.9 24.6 1.0 59.7 58.3 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 17.3 17.5 22.3 0.8 59.6 57.0 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.0 22.3 0.3 53.7 52.5 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.0 24.1 20.1 0.1 52.0 51.1 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.0 24.2 24.4 1.0 59.6 58.1 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.8 13.2 20.5 0.1 50.4 51.1 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.4 22.5 0.3 52.2 52.6 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.8 21.3 0.2 50.6 51.7 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.4 22.0 0.2 51.5 51.7 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.6 24.0 21.7 0.2 51.8 51.8 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 25.1 21.0 -0.1 47.0 49.4 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.3 22.2 0.3 53.6 53.0 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 24.6 25.1 23.2 1.1 63.4 59.8 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.5 21.8 0.3 52.0 51.9 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.7 23.3 24.1 0.9 59.0 56.8 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.9 20.7 0.2 51.4 51.8 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.6 24.5 1.0 60.0 57.8 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 17.3 19.0 18.2 -0.1 47.6 49.1 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.1 23.5 0.5 55.0 54.2 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.5 24.0 0.8 57.9 56.6 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.4 24.4 0.9 59.5 57.4 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.8 22.3 0.4 54.2 53.8 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.9 22.5 0.6 57.8 55.2 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 22.7 25.1 21.6 0.5 53.4 53.4 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 23.5 23.8 23.5 0.9 60.4 57.3 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.5 22.6 0.8 59.9 57.3 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.9 19.7 0.0 49.8 50.2 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.7 24.6 1.1 61.2 59.0 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------