***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.9 26.2 1.1 62.9 59.7 22.0 25.0 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 26.8 26.3 1.2 66.1 60.9 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.4 26.4 1.1 62.9 59.4 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.9 24.0 0.9 59.3 57.3 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 23.6 26.2 23.8 0.3 53.8 52.6 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.8 21.7 0.4 53.4 54.5 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.3 26.2 1.3 66.2 61.5 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.9 14.2 22.0 0.1 50.8 51.2 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 23.4 25.9 24.1 0.3 53.3 52.6 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.9 25.0 22.7 0.1 51.7 51.5 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 23.1 25.8 23.6 0.3 53.6 52.6 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 22.2 25.0 23.3 0.3 52.3 52.9 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.5 26.1 22.6 0.1 49.3 51.7 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.5 23.8 0.4 54.6 53.4 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 26.0 26.6 25.0 1.2 63.4 60.7 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.8 26.9 23.4 0.4 54.2 53.7 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.2 25.9 1.1 64.9 60.6 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.0 22.2 0.1 49.9 51.1 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 26.4 26.4 1.2 65.6 60.4 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.1 19.9 19.5 -0.3 44.4 47.9 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.5 26.2 25.1 0.5 56.9 54.6 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.8 25.8 1.1 64.5 60.2 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 26.2 26.2 1.2 63.6 59.6 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.4 23.9 0.4 54.7 53.9 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.4 26.0 24.1 0.6 57.1 55.2 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.6 23.3 0.7 55.7 56.3 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.1 25.1 0.9 60.4 58.1 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.3 24.3 0.9 60.8 58.2 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.3 18.9 21.0 -0.2 47.1 49.2 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.4 26.4 1.3 66.3 61.3 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------