***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 25.7 26.2 27.4 1.7 68.5 66.5 23.0 24.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.9 26.1 27.3 1.5 65.9 65.0 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 24.7 25.5 27.3 1.4 65.1 63.1 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.9 24.7 1.3 66.8 64.1 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.2 24.7 0.5 56.3 55.5 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 23.9 23.9 22.4 0.5 56.5 56.4 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.2 25.8 27.3 1.6 66.7 65.5 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.2 22.4 0.0 50.5 50.7 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.0 25.3 0.6 57.2 56.0 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 24.5 24.3 23.3 0.2 52.7 52.0 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.0 24.6 0.3 54.1 54.0 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.6 23.8 0.3 53.1 53.7 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 24.9 24.9 24.0 0.3 53.7 53.4 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 25.0 24.9 24.8 0.5 56.0 55.7 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 26.4 26.6 26.8 1.8 71.7 68.9 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 25.5 25.9 24.4 0.5 56.9 56.0 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 24.1 25.3 26.9 1.6 66.7 65.3 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 23.8 23.5 22.4 0.1 50.8 51.0 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 24.7 25.6 27.3 1.5 65.2 64.4 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 19.5 19.0 20.0 -0.3 46.6 47.1 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.3 26.3 0.8 59.2 58.2 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 24.9 26.1 26.9 1.5 66.2 64.9 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.3 27.3 1.6 66.0 64.6 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.5 24.8 0.5 55.5 55.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 24.5 25.5 25.4 1.0 61.3 60.3 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.0 24.9 23.6 0.6 55.5 56.2 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.2 25.8 26.3 1.4 65.9 64.2 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 26.2 26.1 25.4 1.3 66.5 64.2 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 19.2 18.5 21.5 -0.2 48.0 48.7 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.2 26.2 27.5 1.7 67.6 65.9 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------