***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.2 15.4 0.6 69.5 64.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.2 15.1 0.6 69.2 63.7 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.5 15.5 0.5 66.8 62.7 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.1 13.0 0.6 66.6 64.6 8.7 9.6 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.0 12.9 0.2 58.5 56.3 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.3 11.0 0.4 66.2 62.1 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.3 15.3 0.7 70.6 65.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.6 10.7 0.2 58.2 56.7 5.2 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 0.2 57.5 56.0 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.6 11.5 0.2 57.1 55.9 11.5 11.6 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.5 12.4 0.2 58.0 56.9 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 11.5 0.2 59.8 58.0 9.8 10.0 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 11.1 0.1 55.0 54.9 10.5 10.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.2 12.8 0.1 52.7 52.6 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.4 14.7 0.9 76.1 71.7 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.2 11.9 0.2 59.4 57.6 11.6 11.9 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.7 14.8 0.6 69.4 63.2 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.4 10.7 0.1 54.1 53.4 10.1 10.4 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.3 15.1 0.5 68.1 63.2 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 8.8 0.0 51.8 50.9 6.3 6.7 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.6 14.4 0.3 59.9 57.4 11.3 11.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 11.7 11.7 14.9 0.5 67.2 62.3 11.0 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.9 15.0 0.5 66.8 62.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.8 12.8 0.2 56.0 56.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 14.1 0.3 60.4 58.2 11.6 11.9 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.1 10.8 0.2 59.0 56.7 10.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.6 14.7 0.5 65.4 61.9 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.9 13.3 0.6 68.9 66.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.3 10.1 0.0 51.1 51.4 9.0 9.3 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.7 15.5 0.7 71.0 65.6 11.8 12.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------