***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 13.7 0.2 55.6 52.1 10.3 10.9 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.2 13.4 0.2 55.1 52.2 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.0 13.8 0.2 54.7 52.3 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.9 10.9 0.1 52.3 50.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.3 10.8 -0.2 46.9 47.7 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.3 0.0 48.5 49.5 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.7 13.7 0.4 57.5 54.0 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.2 8.9 -0.2 42.8 47.1 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.7 10.8 11.0 -0.2 44.6 46.7 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.0 9.6 -0.3 42.6 46.3 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.3 10.2 -0.2 43.6 47.5 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.2 9.4 -0.2 43.5 47.1 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 8.9 -0.4 41.9 44.6 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.0 -0.2 43.4 46.7 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.2 54.0 53.0 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.0 9.7 -0.3 43.8 46.6 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 13.1 0.2 54.8 51.6 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.9 8.7 -0.3 43.0 45.4 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.8 13.4 0.2 53.3 51.6 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.9 -0.4 40.5 44.4 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.9 12.5 -0.1 49.0 48.3 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.7 13.0 0.1 53.2 51.0 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.2 10.6 13.2 0.1 52.1 51.3 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.7 10.7 10.8 -0.2 45.6 47.3 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.6 12.2 0.0 50.5 49.3 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.1 9.0 -0.2 45.3 47.5 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.7 13.0 0.1 53.0 51.0 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 11.1 0.1 50.8 50.9 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 8.4 8.2 -0.4 41.0 44.8 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.9 13.7 0.3 57.0 53.5 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------