***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.0 15.8 0.6 63.6 60.6 11.0 11.7 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.7 15.5 0.7 65.2 61.0 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 13.8 14.7 16.0 0.6 64.7 60.6 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.4 13.5 0.8 64.4 62.2 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.8 13.5 0.3 58.6 55.2 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.3 11.4 0.5 59.1 58.9 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.8 15.7 0.8 65.8 62.0 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.5 11.1 0.3 57.7 55.2 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.2 13.4 0.2 59.5 54.5 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.4 12.0 0.3 58.9 55.3 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.0 13.0 0.3 58.6 55.7 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.4 10.4 12.0 0.3 56.7 55.3 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.2 11.0 11.6 0.2 50.7 52.3 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.8 13.3 0.2 54.7 53.5 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 13.4 13.3 15.3 1.0 69.3 67.1 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.6 12.5 0.3 56.4 55.2 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.5 13.1 15.3 0.7 64.7 60.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.2 11.2 0.3 55.9 54.8 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.9 13.3 15.6 0.7 65.3 61.2 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.0 9.3 0.1 50.9 51.8 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.8 14.8 0.3 60.9 55.9 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.7 15.5 0.8 66.8 62.1 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.5 15.6 0.7 65.4 61.5 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.7 13.3 0.3 58.6 56.3 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.7 14.5 0.3 58.9 54.8 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.4 11.3 0.2 52.5 53.3 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.9 15.1 0.5 61.7 57.7 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.2 13.8 0.7 64.1 62.5 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.5 10.6 0.2 53.8 53.6 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.3 13.0 15.9 0.8 65.9 62.6 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------