***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.1 16.8 0.6 60.3 58.9 13.1 13.9 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.6 16.3 0.4 57.9 56.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.0 16.6 0.2 54.7 54.5 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.9 15.0 0.9 66.8 65.0 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.8 14.9 0.3 56.4 55.5 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.4 12.6 0.7 67.4 65.0 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.4 16.5 0.5 61.6 57.5 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 8.1 8.1 12.5 0.5 63.3 60.9 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 14.9 0.4 59.8 57.8 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 13.4 0.5 61.5 59.0 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.9 14.7 0.5 60.9 59.6 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 12.5 12.3 13.6 0.6 63.4 62.0 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.5 13.5 0.5 63.0 61.2 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.2 14.3 -0.1 50.5 49.5 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.2 17.2 1.6 82.0 77.0 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.7 14.2 0.5 63.0 61.3 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.9 16.0 0.4 61.6 57.1 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.4 12.5 0.2 56.5 54.7 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 13.9 13.7 16.3 0.3 55.6 55.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.6 10.8 0.2 57.1 55.4 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.7 16.0 0.3 56.8 56.3 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.6 16.2 0.2 56.4 54.3 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 13.7 13.6 16.4 0.3 55.1 55.6 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.6 14.4 0.1 53.7 52.9 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.8 15.8 0.4 54.8 56.0 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.4 12.6 0.2 59.6 57.6 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.0 16.3 0.5 58.3 58.5 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.7 15.5 1.0 71.6 68.8 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.4 11.8 0.1 54.6 53.3 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.4 16.7 0.4 59.4 57.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------