***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 36.0 88.4 51.7 45.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 32.7 52.2 38.3 88.6 57.2 44.3 37.4 51.4 55.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 35.9 53.9 34.5 84.2 45.3 42.2 28.5 57.1 69.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 34.8 61.1 38.5 91.7 52.1 45.8 39.4 59.3 77.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 28.7 41.0 36.9 87.2 46.3 43.9 30.1 47.2 66.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 24.5 41.4 47.8 101.7 56.1 48.3 31.4 38.6 52.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 30.4 50.6 39.5 90.4 58.2 45.0 30.6 45.8 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 56.2 67.3 40.2 89.5 44.4 42.8 56.7 72.7 101.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 36.0 45.2 36.2 84.4 43.7 41.8 38.5 53.3 65.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.0 49.7 40.2 84.8 41.8 40.5 34.1 52.7 71.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 28.6 43.7 34.1 89.2 48.0 43.8 34.3 45.3 64.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 32.6 47.1 33.0 91.6 50.1 43.7 33.1 47.1 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 31.4 51.5 38.3 93.4 51.7 44.4 36.4 46.7 65.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 41.5 57.5 41.8 81.5 41.1 39.7 45.5 64.3 77.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 19.6 35.5 35.9 97.2 52.6 47.6 22.4 35.1 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.4 41.7 36.1 91.9 52.1 44.4 31.4 40.0 55.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 29.7 46.6 38.2 87.1 56.9 43.3 32.0 43.3 55.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 43.4 58.4 44.3 81.3 39.8 37.8 42.8 65.9 77.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 32.5 47.7 36.5 85.9 52.9 43.3 35.9 47.2 64.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 52.7 63.4 54.2 88.6 45.9 42.0 56.3 65.3 79.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 28.1 44.4 33.8 85.4 47.1 43.6 27.2 47.6 73.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 33.6 46.9 36.7 82.9 51.4 42.0 32.5 46.5 61.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 30.6 39.7 35.3 82.8 48.2 41.7 32.3 42.5 62.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 42.9 53.6 38.9 80.1 41.3 38.4 38.5 64.6 86.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 30.0 50.7 41.4 90.8 48.9 45.9 37.8 52.8 63.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 24.7 36.1 33.3 98.1 56.5 46.9 24.3 34.2 43.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 28.6 53.2 41.5 90.7 53.1 45.9 35.8 51.2 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 22.4 37.3 37.0 94.6 52.6 46.5 19.6 36.7 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 63.1 89.1 48.5 83.9 42.0 39.2 71.5 94.0 117.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 31.4 43.3 37.7 88.5 54.6 44.4 29.3 40.6 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------