***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 90.9 62.9 46.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.0 6.6 90.2 67.1 47.3 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.0 6.7 87.5 61.3 44.7 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.7 11.1 7.4 103.6 66.8 50.8 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.9 10.5 6.8 94.3 65.7 48.0 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 11.3 10.0 118.7 67.6 54.4 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.0 6.7 93.0 67.8 46.7 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 18.7 7.4 87.4 62.3 46.4 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.1 6.5 83.0 59.7 45.6 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.8 7.2 82.4 59.5 45.3 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.1 14.5 6.0 93.6 66.0 48.3 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.0 13.7 6.0 93.7 65.8 47.2 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.1 7.5 104.9 67.7 50.9 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 17.5 7.8 83.6 61.4 44.3 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.1 13.6 6.6 103.9 70.0 50.9 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.5 6.8 6.9 104.6 67.5 50.2 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 13.4 6.2 89.5 68.8 47.5 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.3 8.3 78.5 55.1 42.3 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.5 6.3 86.7 65.7 47.2 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 17.7 10.8 88.3 58.1 44.9 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.3 10.4 6.3 85.7 61.7 45.2 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.8 13.7 6.0 85.0 67.1 46.7 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.5 6.1 81.7 64.4 46.6 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.0 7.4 80.6 57.9 42.8 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.5 15.8 7.9 95.3 64.4 48.2 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 18.5 6.3 92.4 70.5 50.7 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.6 7.9 94.7 64.8 47.6 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.0 14.1 7.0 104.8 67.7 51.4 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 14.9 9.0 80.0 55.9 43.0 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.6 6.8 91.4 66.1 46.6 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------