***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 8.3 80.2 58.9 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.2 9.1 76.7 58.2 47.5 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.8 7.9 77.7 60.9 46.5 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.6 9.7 96.6 67.2 51.3 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.5 15.6 9.8 98.6 67.1 51.4 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.9 10.2 14.0 116.9 67.8 54.7 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.8 6.6 9.6 78.2 54.4 46.9 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.1 21.3 12.4 115.4 65.1 53.2 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.0 9.7 96.8 64.1 49.7 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.4 11.9 105.3 62.5 50.8 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.4 10.2 108.4 68.4 52.9 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.9 9.7 111.0 68.9 53.2 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.5 10.5 105.9 65.3 52.2 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 10.3 10.4 80.2 54.2 47.1 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.3 10.1 9.0 98.4 67.8 51.7 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.2 10.2 105.6 65.5 52.5 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.5 19.9 9.8 82.5 60.7 48.9 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.2 12.8 93.7 58.6 49.2 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.6 8.3 74.2 58.4 47.5 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.7 19.4 16.0 105.1 62.7 51.9 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.3 18.0 8.4 91.6 64.0 50.0 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.3 9.2 80.9 59.6 48.6 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.6 15.7 7.8 72.4 58.3 48.0 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.2 10.1 82.5 56.9 47.3 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.0 20.3 9.6 87.1 62.2 49.2 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.5 9.2 9.5 116.9 71.1 55.1 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 9.3 79.6 58.9 47.1 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.0 9.6 9.8 103.4 67.9 52.0 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.5 14.0 96.1 59.4 50.2 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.2 8.7 75.7 56.0 46.3 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------