***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 117.5 75.7 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.7 11.9 13.0 111.2 69.8 48.8 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.1 12.8 11.4 101.6 69.3 48.7 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 21.1 11.8 104.1 69.1 48.6 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.0 14.6 11.0 91.0 64.4 47.3 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.9 15.0 107.7 61.6 48.5 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.2 15.8 13.3 112.7 68.2 49.7 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.4 21.4 11.4 84.5 54.6 46.1 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.8 10.8 85.8 58.6 46.8 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.3 11.3 81.3 54.1 45.9 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.2 14.7 9.8 90.1 60.8 46.8 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.8 9.7 90.5 58.4 47.2 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 17.4 11.8 95.6 59.8 44.7 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.4 12.7 85.9 58.8 46.1 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.0 8.9 11.3 118.8 75.0 50.1 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 12.2 10.8 97.3 61.2 45.6 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.8 12.4 106.1 65.3 46.6 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 12.6 12.4 78.0 52.9 45.1 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 15.8 12.3 106.4 70.2 48.9 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 15.8 15.3 83.7 50.5 45.1 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.9 13.1 10.6 97.4 66.8 49.5 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.8 11.9 99.2 60.3 45.7 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.7 11.8 11.8 99.0 68.4 49.0 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.6 11.4 81.4 58.5 45.7 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.9 15.3 13.9 114.0 73.1 51.5 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.8 10.5 108.6 67.6 47.6 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.7 10.7 14.3 119.2 74.8 51.9 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.0 11.1 106.6 69.7 48.5 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 20.1 13.5 80.2 53.0 45.4 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.2 13.1 13.0 113.5 71.5 49.7 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------