***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 68.0 55.6 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.6 9.6 77.5 57.9 43.2 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.2 8.4 71.3 54.7 42.5 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.3 13.7 9.6 71.4 59.0 46.1 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.1 9.2 71.2 55.0 45.4 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.9 8.8 69.4 55.7 39.2 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.4 9.9 79.6 56.4 43.4 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.9 21.1 9.1 73.9 58.0 44.0 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.8 9.2 73.9 58.7 45.4 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.1 14.4 9.8 73.1 57.1 44.3 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.9 8.2 70.5 57.9 43.6 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.5 7.5 74.9 62.1 44.3 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.2 8.5 73.4 56.3 39.7 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.4 14.5 10.9 76.8 53.3 42.1 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.3 8.0 9.0 75.8 66.9 43.1 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.4 8.2 69.0 57.5 40.1 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 12.8 9.7 73.4 55.2 40.0 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.1 10.9 75.3 55.2 44.7 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.8 9.5 77.0 55.9 43.7 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 17.6 12.2 78.3 56.2 44.8 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 6.6 8.5 70.2 55.2 44.4 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.1 13.3 9.6 69.4 50.5 40.1 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.7 9.5 76.9 55.4 43.4 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.4 9.8 9.9 76.0 54.3 43.5 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 14.0 10.0 71.1 57.8 47.1 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.6 9.7 6.9 74.8 57.2 37.6 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.9 9.9 72.5 56.3 46.4 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.3 9.1 72.7 62.1 43.7 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.9 18.4 12.0 79.2 55.3 45.2 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.9 9.2 75.4 57.5 43.2 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------