***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 23.5 0.6 55.8 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.6 24.3 23.7 0.7 60.3 57.1 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.5 23.7 0.7 57.9 57.0 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.1 21.8 0.3 55.5 54.3 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.1 22.0 0.5 55.3 55.5 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.3 20.0 0.5 55.2 56.8 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.0 24.2 23.4 0.6 59.9 56.7 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.8 20.6 0.6 57.7 56.6 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.5 22.4 0.6 57.1 56.2 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.3 21.2 0.6 57.3 56.5 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 21.8 0.7 57.8 57.0 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.1 21.6 0.6 57.9 57.1 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.4 21.1 0.6 56.9 56.9 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.3 22.4 0.9 60.1 58.5 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.6 22.2 0.4 59.1 55.5 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.9 21.5 0.6 56.7 56.6 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.8 23.6 23.3 0.7 62.5 57.5 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.3 20.5 0.6 57.4 56.5 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.6 23.9 0.8 60.9 58.0 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 17.3 19.9 18.5 0.5 57.1 55.8 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.1 23.0 0.5 55.7 55.7 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.4 24.3 23.5 0.8 63.1 58.3 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.4 23.8 0.9 61.3 59.2 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.1 22.2 0.8 59.2 57.5 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.8 22.1 0.5 55.4 55.5 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.3 21.1 0.4 56.9 55.6 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.3 22.7 0.6 56.0 55.6 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.3 22.0 0.3 57.2 54.6 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.6 19.2 19.6 0.6 56.9 56.0 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.7 23.8 0.7 59.4 56.8 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------