***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 25.3 1.4 67.2 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.6 26.7 25.3 1.5 65.2 63.4 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 25.7 26.5 25.4 1.5 65.3 63.6 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.3 19.2 23.8 1.3 63.5 62.0 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 26.1 26.6 23.9 1.4 63.3 63.1 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 25.6 25.6 22.2 1.5 66.6 64.0 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.5 26.3 25.1 1.4 66.3 63.5 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 14.4 15.0 22.4 1.3 61.9 62.8 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 26.1 26.2 24.1 1.4 62.6 63.6 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 25.2 25.5 23.0 1.4 62.0 63.5 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 25.8 26.4 23.7 1.5 66.3 64.4 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.5 23.5 1.5 63.6 63.5 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.8 23.1 1.5 65.0 64.1 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 25.2 25.9 23.8 1.5 63.2 63.7 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.7 24.4 1.3 65.2 63.0 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 26.8 27.3 23.5 1.5 65.0 64.1 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.2 24.9 1.6 66.8 63.8 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 24.2 24.8 22.1 1.3 60.1 62.6 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 25.3 26.4 25.4 1.6 65.9 64.0 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 20.7 21.2 20.0 1.1 60.2 60.4 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 25.7 26.5 24.8 1.3 61.9 62.7 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 25.4 26.1 25.0 1.6 68.2 64.0 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 25.0 26.5 25.3 1.7 67.6 65.0 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 25.4 25.7 23.8 1.5 61.5 63.9 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.3 26.5 23.9 1.4 66.3 63.3 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.7 23.0 1.2 60.1 61.3 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 25.7 26.5 24.5 1.4 67.9 63.4 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.3 24.1 1.3 63.3 62.1 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 19.5 20.3 21.1 1.2 59.7 61.3 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 25.2 26.4 25.4 1.5 65.9 63.5 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------