***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 26.1 1.2 67.8 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 26.3 27.4 26.1 1.4 74.0 64.2 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.8 26.7 26.3 1.4 71.3 63.8 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.0 24.9 1.2 68.1 61.7 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.3 26.3 24.8 1.2 68.4 61.9 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.5 23.2 1.5 68.4 63.3 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.4 26.9 25.9 1.3 71.0 63.3 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.6 23.4 1.3 69.9 62.2 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.2 26.3 25.1 1.3 69.4 62.1 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.9 23.9 1.3 70.6 62.2 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.7 24.7 1.4 70.2 63.3 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.0 25.4 24.5 1.4 69.3 63.2 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.0 26.5 24.2 1.5 68.3 62.7 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 26.1 26.7 24.8 1.5 73.3 64.1 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.9 25.6 1.4 68.9 64.5 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 26.7 27.2 24.5 1.4 69.2 62.8 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 25.7 26.3 25.8 1.5 73.8 64.3 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.8 23.1 1.2 70.2 61.8 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.9 26.3 1.5 75.0 65.1 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.8 20.9 1.0 66.3 59.7 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.1 26.2 25.7 1.2 67.6 61.8 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 26.5 26.9 25.9 1.6 74.2 65.4 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 26.4 27.1 26.3 1.7 75.7 66.0 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.9 26.0 24.7 1.4 72.5 63.6 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.7 26.4 24.8 1.3 70.0 62.9 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.4 24.1 1.2 68.6 61.2 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.4 26.0 25.3 1.3 69.3 62.7 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.3 26.1 25.3 1.3 67.8 62.1 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 20.3 22.0 1.1 68.8 60.5 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 25.7 26.8 26.3 1.4 72.0 63.8 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------