***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 27.1 0.9 66.0 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 26.8 28.0 27.1 1.0 70.8 64.3 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 26.5 27.5 27.2 0.9 66.2 62.5 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.7 25.2 0.6 64.6 57.8 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.6 28.2 25.8 0.7 62.8 58.7 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.6 27.8 24.0 1.1 71.6 65.0 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 27.1 27.4 26.8 0.9 71.1 63.6 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.4 24.2 0.9 64.5 60.3 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.5 27.8 26.6 0.9 66.1 61.1 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.4 24.9 0.9 65.2 60.9 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.5 25.6 0.8 64.5 60.1 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 26.7 27.3 25.3 0.9 66.6 61.2 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 28.9 29.1 25.4 1.1 71.3 64.0 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 27.6 27.5 26.0 1.1 69.9 63.9 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 27.3 28.5 27.1 0.8 67.3 61.1 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 28.3 29.6 25.7 1.0 69.8 62.7 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 27.1 27.0 26.6 1.0 73.1 66.0 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 26.0 26.4 24.0 0.9 63.4 60.0 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 27.5 27.3 27.3 1.2 71.3 66.1 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.5 22.9 22.3 0.9 65.2 60.5 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 26.8 27.4 26.8 0.5 60.7 57.3 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.6 26.7 1.1 72.3 66.5 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 27.4 27.9 27.5 1.5 72.8 69.1 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 26.2 27.1 25.7 0.9 66.3 61.5 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.3 25.6 0.5 61.1 56.8 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.5 28.5 24.9 0.9 68.0 62.0 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 26.7 27.1 26.1 0.6 62.6 58.9 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 27.4 28.5 26.1 0.6 65.4 58.7 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.1 21.8 23.2 0.8 64.0 59.9 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 26.7 27.4 27.2 0.9 68.4 63.3 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------