***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 15.0 0.4 63.3 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.0 14.8 0.3 63.5 59.3 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.5 15.0 0.5 66.7 62.4 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.2 13.1 0.4 68.2 60.3 8.7 9.6 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.4 13.0 0.4 69.4 61.5 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.5 10.5 11.5 0.7 76.3 70.4 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.3 14.9 0.4 63.7 60.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.8 5.8 11.3 0.4 68.9 62.8 5.2 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.5 13.4 0.5 70.5 63.1 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.1 11.9 0.4 69.2 62.4 11.5 11.6 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.8 12.7 0.6 73.5 66.2 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.3 12.2 0.6 72.3 66.2 9.8 10.0 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 11.3 11.5 11.7 0.6 75.4 67.7 10.5 10.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.6 13.4 0.5 69.9 63.3 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.4 14.2 0.6 76.2 67.3 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 12.6 12.7 12.4 0.6 74.6 68.0 11.6 11.9 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.4 14.3 0.2 61.0 57.2 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 11.1 0.3 65.6 59.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.3 14.9 0.5 67.3 62.6 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 9.4 0.2 61.8 55.2 6.3 6.7 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.7 14.3 0.3 66.4 58.6 11.3 11.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.8 14.5 0.4 68.3 62.0 11.0 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.9 12.1 14.9 0.7 74.5 67.9 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.1 13.1 0.5 70.1 63.6 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 13.6 0.3 63.0 57.8 11.6 11.9 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.3 11.8 0.5 73.0 65.0 10.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.6 14.2 0.3 62.8 58.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.0 13.6 0.5 71.4 63.6 10.3 10.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.7 10.5 0.3 65.9 60.2 9.0 9.3 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.6 15.1 0.4 64.7 60.8 11.8 12.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------