***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 13.2 0.1 53.7 52.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.2 13.2 0.2 53.6 52.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 13.1 0.2 56.3 53.8 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.0 11.2 0.1 53.8 52.3 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.5 11.0 0.1 52.4 52.9 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.5 9.5 0.3 55.4 54.2 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 13.1 0.2 52.6 53.1 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.8 9.6 0.2 51.9 53.7 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.5 11.4 0.2 54.1 53.1 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.2 10.0 0.2 52.1 53.3 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.1 10.8 0.3 58.0 54.9 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.6 10.4 0.3 56.1 54.9 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 9.7 0.3 56.4 54.4 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.7 0.2 51.8 53.8 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 12.0 0.3 57.5 55.4 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 10.4 0.3 60.2 55.4 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.7 0.1 50.8 51.2 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.3 9.4 0.1 52.5 52.5 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.8 13.2 0.2 55.6 53.8 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.3 8.0 0.0 48.5 50.9 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 12.3 0.0 52.6 51.2 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.7 12.9 0.2 53.2 53.2 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.6 13.1 0.4 56.8 55.4 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.0 11.4 0.2 56.1 54.1 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 11.7 0.0 53.8 51.7 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.4 9.9 0.2 55.8 54.1 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.7 12.4 0.1 54.3 52.4 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 11.5 0.2 57.0 54.2 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.7 8.9 0.1 48.5 52.0 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.8 13.4 0.2 54.9 53.5 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------