***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 14.9 0.7 59.1 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 14.7 0.8 60.5 58.9 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.9 14.8 0.9 65.8 61.1 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 12.9 0.7 61.6 60.1 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.5 12.9 0.9 64.7 61.9 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.7 11.3 1.0 67.2 64.6 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 14.7 0.7 57.7 58.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.5 11.3 1.0 61.9 62.7 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.7 13.3 1.0 67.0 63.2 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.2 11.8 1.0 63.1 62.9 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.0 12.6 1.1 70.2 65.5 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.6 12.2 1.1 67.0 65.3 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.4 11.6 1.0 67.8 65.5 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.7 13.4 1.1 67.8 64.4 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.5 13.8 0.9 67.7 62.9 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.7 12.3 1.1 70.7 65.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 14.2 0.6 56.7 57.2 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.7 11.1 1.0 62.2 62.1 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.3 14.8 0.9 64.1 60.9 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.5 9.6 0.7 54.6 58.4 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.2 14.1 0.8 63.4 60.1 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.7 14.3 0.7 60.1 59.5 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.2 14.8 1.1 69.3 64.2 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.2 13.1 1.1 67.8 63.9 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.3 13.4 0.7 59.6 59.2 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.3 11.8 0.9 63.1 63.5 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 14.1 0.7 57.5 58.6 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 13.3 0.8 65.3 61.8 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.3 10.6 0.9 61.6 62.1 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 14.9 0.8 61.2 59.5 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------