***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 0.0 16.1 -0.1 49.8 49.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.4 15.5 -0.4 44.7 44.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 16.1 15.9 16.1 -0.1 48.4 50.0 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.2 14.5 0.1 50.6 51.0 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 12.6 12.2 14.5 -0.1 48.1 49.0 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.0 13.0 0.5 60.6 59.4 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 14.0 13.7 15.9 -0.2 48.6 48.6 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 7.1 7.0 12.5 0.0 51.4 51.0 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 13.8 13.6 14.9 0.0 50.6 50.4 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 13.6 13.4 13.2 0.0 49.9 49.8 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 13.1 13.0 14.1 0.0 50.6 51.1 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 11.9 12.2 13.4 0.2 55.8 53.7 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 12.9 12.7 13.3 0.2 50.6 53.2 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.4 13.9 14.5 -0.3 41.4 42.8 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 15.1 15.3 16.2 0.4 58.0 58.3 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 14.4 14.4 14.0 0.2 53.3 54.0 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.2 13.7 15.1 -0.5 42.3 42.4 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.2 11.6 12.1 -0.2 45.0 45.0 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 13.9 13.7 15.8 -0.2 47.6 47.9 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 7.6 10.1 -0.4 41.1 42.8 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.4 12.6 15.7 -0.3 46.1 45.9 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 13.4 12.9 15.6 -0.2 46.0 47.0 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 13.6 13.6 16.1 0.2 54.2 54.3 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.4 14.2 -0.2 45.9 46.9 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.2 15.0 -0.3 47.0 46.7 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.3 13.1 0.2 54.4 54.9 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 13.8 13.2 15.3 -0.3 47.2 46.6 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 12.5 12.5 15.2 0.2 54.8 54.6 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 11.4 10.9 11.5 -0.1 46.3 47.1 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 14.0 13.7 16.0 -0.3 46.8 47.7 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------