***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 36.0 58.1 33.9 89.2 51.0 45.2 30.9 58.1 62.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 55.0 51.8 33.8 93.4 53.9 46.6 36.5 51.6 55.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 61.7 58.4 33.7 87.5 50.7 45.5 26.2 57.1 69.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 40.6 64.5 32.8 82.8 50.2 42.5 40.0 64.5 75.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 31.8 49.3 32.2 85.9 50.5 43.5 30.1 49.0 65.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 26.9 39.4 36.1 81.3 45.7 38.8 31.9 42.1 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 51.3 49.0 33.0 92.1 53.8 46.2 30.6 45.8 54.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 59.4 74.9 39.2 85.9 48.4 43.3 62.3 80.5 105.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 37.5 51.8 33.5 86.4 49.5 43.6 38.5 52.8 68.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 38.6 56.0 39.6 86.0 48.1 43.3 33.5 58.0 70.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 28.5 47.7 31.3 83.4 49.6 41.5 35.9 48.1 65.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 32.6 48.1 30.7 82.7 49.6 41.8 35.9 48.4 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 34.1 50.7 29.5 77.1 49.2 39.7 38.3 50.8 67.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 75.9 63.9 45.7 90.5 51.3 45.0 44.0 63.5 78.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.1 38.5 30.3 85.6 54.3 43.8 22.7 35.7 43.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 29.1 51.6 29.0 78.0 49.4 39.2 36.1 51.8 59.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 51.8 47.7 35.0 98.3 57.4 47.6 37.4 45.2 55.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 71.6 65.9 46.9 90.8 50.3 46.6 42.8 65.6 78.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 57.6 55.0 33.9 91.1 51.4 45.1 35.1 53.2 67.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 73.4 72.5 54.8 99.5 56.1 50.2 56.2 65.5 84.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 31.0 50.4 33.2 87.7 51.7 44.7 36.3 47.6 76.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 33.4 54.3 37.3 97.0 55.2 46.1 33.7 44.5 61.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 50.2 37.2 34.0 86.9 47.6 42.6 31.0 40.6 64.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 74.8 64.8 41.0 88.0 50.1 45.4 38.5 64.6 93.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 32.2 56.8 35.1 86.5 50.5 43.4 38.2 56.2 67.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 27.6 35.7 29.9 82.5 49.5 42.4 32.1 35.8 45.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 32.2 51.2 35.6 88.5 50.4 44.4 39.2 51.2 63.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.2 37.5 31.6 84.7 52.2 42.3 24.2 36.8 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 104.9 96.7 50.4 93.4 52.1 47.8 71.6 95.6 119.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 45.7 41.7 33.3 89.6 52.1 45.6 30.3 41.0 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------