***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 16.9 11.0 136.3 74.6 58.2 1.0 6.5 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 16.1 10.9 142.0 79.2 59.8 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.8 19.6 12.4 151.9 78.2 59.4 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.1 21.7 15.2 176.4 81.4 58.4 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.7 22.2 14.3 179.7 83.3 57.8 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 21.8 17.1 175.2 79.2 56.8 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 21.4 10.4 136.1 78.8 58.3 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 32.4 14.6 149.1 76.2 56.3 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 18.3 26.5 14.0 169.2 81.8 57.5 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 24.0 15.4 156.3 78.4 56.6 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.7 23.1 14.0 176.0 81.4 57.6 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 17.9 12.7 158.1 77.6 56.2 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.9 18.7 13.5 159.2 77.3 56.0 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 23.1 14.7 136.3 73.4 58.9 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 15.0 24.4 15.2 190.3 84.0 60.6 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.4 19.3 13.6 166.6 79.6 56.2 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.2 17.4 10.6 137.0 78.0 58.1 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 27.9 15.9 140.8 73.3 56.6 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 21.0 11.4 145.0 78.8 59.5 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.5 27.0 16.9 132.4 73.8 55.9 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.1 19.8 12.5 157.7 79.1 58.1 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 22.0 11.9 142.1 76.5 58.6 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.0 19.5 11.6 142.4 76.9 58.5 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 27.9 14.6 147.6 76.2 58.0 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.2 19.5 12.2 143.4 76.9 57.9 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 19.7 12.7 162.5 78.7 56.5 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 22.4 11.5 135.9 75.7 58.0 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 15.4 22.7 15.8 189.0 82.8 59.2 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 32.2 15.7 132.1 72.3 56.5 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.9 23.4 11.1 140.5 78.1 59.6 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------