***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.4 24.1 9.5 101.2 65.8 44.0 1.5 13.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.4 20.9 9.4 99.2 65.6 47.8 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.2 14.6 8.8 92.0 61.7 45.1 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.3 18.4 9.2 93.7 65.2 46.0 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 15.2 9.1 99.3 65.9 46.1 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.5 9.2 81.2 61.7 44.4 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.2 15.8 9.1 97.3 65.2 48.0 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.4 21.7 9.6 87.4 59.8 46.1 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.2 17.0 9.5 98.6 63.6 46.4 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.6 10.3 92.9 61.0 48.1 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.7 13.4 8.3 94.7 63.0 48.5 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.2 7.6 84.4 60.2 44.0 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.0 6.5 8.0 82.6 61.6 45.3 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 20.8 11.9 98.3 61.1 45.9 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.1 12.0 8.3 96.6 68.1 46.4 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.5 7.8 86.8 62.7 46.4 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.1 22.2 10.2 103.7 66.1 48.0 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 16.9 11.7 93.2 59.5 46.0 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.8 17.8 9.3 97.9 64.4 47.7 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 17.8 12.4 88.0 57.5 45.8 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 22.4 9.6 101.2 63.8 45.0 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.9 20.1 10.3 100.0 64.3 47.7 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.3 19.5 9.1 96.4 62.7 47.2 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.7 18.7 10.7 95.5 59.7 45.0 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.5 23.9 10.5 102.2 65.2 44.1 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.0 4.7 7.3 78.1 62.2 41.9 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 25.7 10.4 104.0 66.1 44.5 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 10.7 8.6 96.0 65.7 46.8 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 29.0 12.2 92.1 58.2 45.5 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.4 9.1 96.3 64.2 47.2 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------