***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.8 9.8 12.1 110.2 70.6 53.1 0.0 1.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 9.9 11.7 119.0 71.9 56.4 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.2 9.5 10.9 96.7 66.2 51.2 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 14.9 7.5 65.9 61.4 44.8 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.4 14.5 7.7 68.1 59.7 43.1 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.0 8.1 63.3 56.0 40.1 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.8 12.0 11.6 120.2 73.0 57.2 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 21.8 9.2 72.7 58.6 44.8 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 13.2 8.6 75.0 59.6 46.8 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.4 9.5 73.7 58.3 46.7 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.3 7.6 66.0 54.5 42.0 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.2 9.6 6.8 62.6 55.4 41.9 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.5 12.0 6.2 55.8 54.1 41.5 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.9 15.8 14.0 97.4 64.8 53.2 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 0.6 5.4 6.4 58.8 62.2 38.6 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.2 6.3 57.6 55.7 40.4 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.3 13.7 11.8 127.7 72.1 57.3 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.5 11.7 83.0 60.4 51.2 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 10.7 11.4 109.9 69.3 55.0 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 20.4 11.5 77.9 57.7 45.7 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.7 9.8 87.9 66.3 49.5 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.1 11.9 116.7 70.2 57.5 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.7 12.1 10.9 98.3 66.1 52.6 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 14.7 12.0 88.8 61.9 52.9 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.2 11.4 94.2 66.5 47.7 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.0 5.3 46.9 50.1 32.5 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 11.3 12.6 107.2 69.8 51.4 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 9.4 6.5 58.5 60.1 41.7 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.7 21.1 12.8 85.0 59.6 50.6 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.7 9.9 11.5 111.8 70.3 54.8 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------