***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 1.3 4.1 1.2 13.0 28.6 16.5 6.8 8.5 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 2.5 3.8 1.7 18.7 33.4 22.0 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 2.9 2.8 1.6 17.1 30.6 19.4 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 1.3 1.9 0.8 8.7 22.4 12.6 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 1.7 2.8 1.2 12.9 27.4 16.0 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 1.2 2.1 1.7 15.9 30.8 19.1 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.7 2.6 2.0 21.3 33.8 22.1 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.7 14.7 5.7 49.6 43.7 35.0 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 3.7 3.9 1.4 14.6 26.0 17.7 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.9 8.4 4.4 33.9 35.3 27.6 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 1.8 4.9 1.5 15.1 29.8 19.3 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.3 5.0 3.7 39.7 41.7 30.7 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 1.7 3.0 1.8 20.5 35.0 22.9 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.5 10.7 5.1 38.4 37.4 29.2 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 0.3 0.2 0.4 5.0 26.8 14.5 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.3 14.8 31.2 18.9 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 4.4 7.7 2.4 27.3 37.4 25.8 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.6 10.0 7.7 52.9 42.0 35.8 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 3.0 5.9 1.9 19.6 33.0 22.2 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 17.3 19.0 14.0 104.1 65.0 56.4 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 2.4 2.7 1.2 13.2 25.1 16.2 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.9 7.5 3.1 33.1 40.4 28.3 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 2.5 4.7 2.4 22.8 32.7 23.4 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.6 29.6 34.1 25.8 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 1.2 1.2 1.0 10.3 24.8 13.6 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.1 4.6 60.2 57.2 43.1 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.8 1.1 11.0 27.1 15.1 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 0.5 0.2 0.8 8.0 25.5 13.6 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 19.6 9.7 70.1 50.9 43.7 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 2.7 3.4 1.5 16.3 31.4 19.9 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------