***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 25.3 27.6 28.0 2.5 87.1 81.7 23.5 24.0 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 25.9 26.6 27.7 2.0 83.5 76.8 24.0 24.8 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 25.5 26.8 28.2 2.2 83.6 78.5 24.0 24.4 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 19.0 20.7 25.9 2.8 90.4 85.3 17.0 17.5 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 26.0 27.2 26.3 2.1 82.0 77.7 24.5 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 25.2 26.8 24.1 2.3 85.9 83.0 23.6 24.2 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 25.5 26.6 27.7 2.1 85.6 78.6 23.2 24.5 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.4 24.3 1.6 74.4 72.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 25.6 26.7 26.8 2.1 81.6 77.6 24.1 24.4 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 25.1 25.8 25.2 2.1 80.2 77.0 23.8 24.4 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 25.7 26.0 26.3 1.7 76.9 73.4 24.1 24.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.8 25.6 1.6 74.4 71.8 23.7 24.2 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 26.2 26.8 25.7 1.8 78.7 75.4 25.0 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.9 25.7 1.5 75.3 70.3 23.9 24.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 26.5 27.3 27.5 2.5 86.4 82.1 24.7 25.1 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 26.6 26.9 26.1 2.0 79.7 77.1 25.2 25.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.8 27.2 2.0 83.8 76.6 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.5 24.2 1.8 78.2 74.0 23.0 23.5 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.9 27.8 1.9 80.9 75.3 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 20.5 20.4 21.6 1.1 69.1 67.3 19.4 19.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 25.5 27.3 27.5 2.2 84.4 78.9 24.2 24.7 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 25.5 26.0 26.9 1.7 79.8 73.3 23.5 24.6 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.4 25.7 27.6 1.7 76.3 72.4 23.5 24.6 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.6 26.1 1.9 79.4 75.6 23.7 24.3 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 26.2 27.6 26.6 2.5 87.8 82.1 23.8 24.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.9 25.1 1.6 74.9 72.6 24.6 25.0 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 25.8 27.4 27.3 2.5 88.7 83.0 23.7 24.5 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 26.2 27.7 26.5 2.6 88.1 83.6 24.8 25.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.7 23.1 1.4 72.4 69.7 18.7 19.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 25.7 26.6 27.8 2.1 83.4 77.6 23.6 24.6 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------