***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.0 24.6 0.6 56.5 56.4 21.6 22.6 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.1 24.3 0.3 52.6 53.0 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 24.8 0.4 55.6 55.0 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.2 22.9 1.1 61.3 61.6 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.7 23.2 0.6 56.5 56.7 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 24.9 24.5 21.4 1.2 61.3 62.4 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.0 24.3 0.3 54.7 53.8 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.1 21.7 0.4 54.0 54.9 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.3 23.5 0.7 56.5 57.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.4 22.4 0.7 57.0 57.0 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.5 23.1 0.4 54.5 55.1 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.0 22.9 0.4 53.2 54.3 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.0 22.3 0.6 55.7 56.8 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.2 22.5 0.0 47.6 50.1 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.6 23.7 1.0 62.0 61.1 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.5 22.9 0.8 57.8 58.1 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.4 23.9 0.2 53.0 52.0 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.5 21.6 0.5 54.9 55.2 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.5 22.9 24.4 0.2 51.7 52.4 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 18.9 19.2 0.3 52.0 52.7 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.9 24.1 0.6 55.3 56.3 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.9 23.8 0.1 51.9 50.7 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.6 22.9 24.4 0.1 49.4 51.1 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.4 22.9 0.4 52.6 54.3 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 23.4 23.2 23.1 0.8 58.6 58.7 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.1 22.6 0.6 54.8 56.7 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 23.4 23.5 23.9 0.8 58.4 58.0 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 25.8 25.3 23.3 1.1 61.8 61.6 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.2 20.6 0.3 51.8 53.0 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.9 24.4 0.3 54.7 53.9 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------