***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 26.2 27.0 26.6 1.5 67.4 63.3 23.4 24.6 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.7 26.2 1.2 59.4 59.7 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 26.3 26.2 26.8 1.4 65.1 62.2 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 19.8 20.4 25.4 2.5 78.6 71.7 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.6 25.3 1.7 70.2 64.9 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 25.5 25.8 23.3 2.0 73.9 69.1 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.3 26.2 1.2 60.8 60.3 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.0 23.8 1.5 68.5 63.6 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.3 26.6 25.6 1.8 70.0 65.0 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 25.7 25.9 24.5 1.8 70.6 65.3 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 26.2 26.2 25.1 1.5 67.1 62.8 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.6 25.1 1.4 67.2 62.7 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 26.5 26.5 24.3 1.6 68.9 64.9 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.4 24.3 0.9 60.4 58.3 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 27.1 27.6 26.3 2.4 77.1 71.5 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 27.0 27.1 25.0 1.8 70.6 66.4 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.5 25.8 1.1 60.5 59.3 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 25.1 24.8 23.6 1.6 69.3 63.9 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.2 26.4 1.1 59.6 59.3 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 21.4 21.1 21.1 1.3 68.4 62.3 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 26.3 26.5 26.2 1.6 67.8 64.2 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.5 25.6 1.0 58.8 58.1 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.3 26.4 1.0 59.0 58.4 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.3 24.9 1.4 66.5 62.3 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.7 25.3 1.9 72.3 67.3 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 26.4 26.3 24.7 1.6 70.1 64.8 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.9 25.9 1.7 70.1 65.3 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 27.0 27.6 25.7 2.4 77.4 71.7 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 20.1 20.3 22.4 1.3 67.1 61.8 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.5 26.4 1.2 60.5 60.5 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------