***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 26.1 27.8 28.8 2.8 82.0 73.7 22.3 23.8 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 26.8 27.8 28.3 2.2 76.6 69.0 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 26.7 27.7 28.8 2.5 77.7 70.8 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 19.2 21.3 26.7 3.4 87.4 79.6 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.3 27.0 2.4 77.6 71.8 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 25.2 27.0 25.0 2.9 84.0 78.2 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.5 28.3 2.4 78.1 70.4 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.9 24.9 2.0 73.3 68.4 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.3 27.4 27.5 2.4 77.6 71.4 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 26.0 26.8 25.8 2.4 77.0 71.1 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.5 27.0 27.0 2.0 72.2 68.4 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.5 25.6 26.2 2.0 72.8 68.5 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 26.5 26.9 26.5 2.1 76.9 70.6 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 26.5 26.4 26.1 1.5 70.2 63.4 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 27.0 28.2 28.7 3.1 85.0 78.8 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 27.1 27.7 26.8 2.3 77.2 72.2 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.7 27.7 2.1 75.0 68.4 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.6 24.6 2.0 74.1 67.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 26.5 27.0 28.3 2.1 75.5 67.9 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 21.6 20.9 22.2 1.6 69.8 64.8 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 26.6 27.9 28.3 2.5 78.1 71.6 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.2 27.4 1.8 71.9 65.9 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 26.5 27.4 28.1 1.8 73.0 65.6 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.6 26.7 2.1 75.8 67.7 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 27.0 28.2 27.5 2.9 82.5 74.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.6 25.9 2.1 75.5 70.1 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 27.0 28.5 28.1 2.9 83.2 74.9 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 26.8 28.4 27.5 3.2 85.8 79.2 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 20.8 20.5 23.6 1.6 69.8 64.7 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.3 28.5 2.4 76.8 70.1 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------