***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 28.4 32.4 32.2 4.8 96.6 95.1 25.4 26.8 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 28.2 31.0 32.0 4.5 93.7 92.0 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 27.9 31.5 32.2 4.5 92.5 91.3 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 21.1 26.2 28.7 4.3 95.4 93.5 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 28.6 30.6 29.8 3.7 89.6 87.9 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 28.1 28.4 26.9 3.1 89.0 87.1 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 27.9 30.6 31.8 4.6 94.9 93.6 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 17.2 17.5 26.7 2.4 78.6 77.6 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 28.2 29.9 30.6 3.7 87.8 87.4 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 28.1 29.4 28.3 3.4 85.7 84.7 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 28.5 29.2 29.9 3.0 83.6 82.2 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 28.2 28.4 28.3 2.6 80.0 78.9 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 29.5 29.9 29.5 2.9 82.1 82.3 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 28.0 29.0 29.8 3.5 86.0 84.9 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 29.3 30.0 31.1 3.4 89.7 88.2 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 29.9 30.6 29.5 3.1 84.0 84.2 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 27.2 30.3 31.3 4.5 94.8 92.8 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 27.0 27.9 26.9 3.0 82.7 81.1 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 27.9 31.0 31.9 4.3 92.1 90.6 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.5 23.5 23.7 1.4 71.7 69.2 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 28.1 31.3 31.6 4.2 91.6 90.8 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 27.4 30.9 30.9 4.1 91.7 90.7 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 28.1 30.2 31.7 3.9 88.6 87.3 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 27.8 29.2 30.1 3.9 87.8 86.9 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 28.5 31.9 30.6 4.3 94.5 93.3 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 29.0 29.1 27.4 2.0 77.3 74.5 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 28.1 31.0 31.4 4.7 96.6 95.3 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 29.3 30.9 29.6 3.7 92.1 90.5 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 23.1 23.2 25.7 2.3 77.7 76.2 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 28.0 30.9 32.1 4.5 92.7 91.8 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------