***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 12.6 13.9 17.5 2.2 93.4 88.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 12.7 14.2 16.9 2.0 91.5 86.3 11.4 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 14.8 16.1 17.4 1.9 90.0 86.5 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 10.3 12.3 14.7 2.1 94.8 89.2 8.8 9.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 11.6 12.4 15.0 1.8 91.3 87.0 10.7 11.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 10.7 11.7 12.8 1.8 95.2 89.8 9.9 10.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 12.9 14.1 17.0 2.0 91.7 86.8 11.8 12.2 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 6.1 7.5 12.6 1.5 89.8 84.1 5.4 5.6 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 12.6 13.6 15.0 1.7 90.8 85.9 11.8 12.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 12.3 13.5 13.4 1.7 91.9 86.5 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 12.0 12.6 14.3 1.4 86.1 82.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 10.4 11.4 13.4 1.5 88.6 83.2 9.9 10.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 11.5 11.8 12.7 1.2 84.0 80.1 10.8 11.0 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 13.0 14.0 14.5 1.4 87.0 81.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 13.6 14.4 16.1 1.8 92.5 87.8 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 12.9 13.8 13.6 1.5 87.8 83.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 13.1 14.4 16.5 1.9 90.4 86.0 12.0 12.3 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 11.2 12.4 12.4 1.5 89.7 84.6 10.2 10.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 12.8 13.8 16.9 1.9 90.3 85.1 11.5 12.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 7.3 8.2 10.4 1.3 87.2 82.0 6.6 6.8 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 12.2 13.3 16.2 1.7 89.1 85.1 11.5 11.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 12.2 13.3 16.4 1.7 89.7 84.1 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 12.3 13.4 16.7 1.6 86.6 82.3 11.1 11.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.6 13.6 14.5 1.6 89.1 84.4 11.4 11.9 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 12.5 13.8 16.3 2.2 92.9 89.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 11.6 12.3 12.2 1.2 84.9 79.8 10.7 11.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 13.1 14.9 16.9 2.3 93.8 89.6 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 11.2 12.6 14.9 1.9 93.6 88.3 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 10.0 11.5 11.8 1.4 87.8 82.9 9.1 9.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 13.0 14.1 17.3 2.0 91.8 86.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------