***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.5 14.6 0.8 62.5 59.3 10.3 10.8 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.5 14.2 0.6 61.7 58.1 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.4 14.7 0.6 62.3 58.6 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.6 10.0 12.2 1.1 72.4 65.0 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 11.3 11.2 12.2 0.8 66.5 61.7 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.9 10.8 10.8 1.1 72.7 67.8 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.9 14.4 0.7 63.3 58.6 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.9 10.4 0.8 63.5 61.9 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.0 12.3 0.8 66.1 60.7 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.8 11.0 0.8 65.5 62.1 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 11.5 11.5 11.8 0.9 67.1 62.6 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.1 11.1 0.8 66.4 62.3 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 10.9 11.4 10.5 1.0 71.7 64.0 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 12.1 0.6 60.6 57.8 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.1 13.5 1.1 73.5 65.8 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.6 11.3 1.1 72.0 65.0 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.0 13.8 0.6 60.8 57.6 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.8 10.1 0.9 64.0 62.6 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.8 14.2 0.6 61.0 57.7 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.7 8.3 0.8 65.9 62.3 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.4 13.7 0.7 63.9 59.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.3 13.8 0.6 60.9 57.6 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.4 14.1 0.5 60.0 56.8 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.3 12.0 0.7 62.2 60.5 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.0 13.3 0.9 64.5 61.0 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 11.2 10.3 0.9 67.0 62.4 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.2 14.1 0.9 65.1 60.8 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.0 11.7 12.5 1.1 73.7 66.3 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.2 9.6 0.8 62.7 61.4 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.2 14.5 0.7 61.8 58.3 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------