***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 12.8 13.4 18.2 2.5 85.8 80.8 11.4 12.0 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 13.1 13.7 17.4 2.2 83.8 77.0 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.3 18.1 2.2 85.5 79.4 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.1 13.1 15.6 2.6 88.2 83.6 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 12.1 12.7 15.8 2.2 85.6 80.1 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 11.1 11.8 13.6 2.3 89.0 85.3 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 13.2 13.7 17.7 2.4 86.5 79.1 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 6.8 7.6 13.3 1.9 86.3 80.0 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 13.2 13.8 15.7 2.0 85.4 79.5 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 12.8 13.6 14.1 2.1 87.0 80.8 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 12.3 13.2 15.2 1.8 83.2 77.7 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.5 14.3 1.9 84.7 79.3 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 11.8 12.2 13.7 1.7 80.9 76.9 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.4 15.1 1.6 80.3 75.1 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 13.9 14.2 17.3 2.4 90.9 84.2 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 13.2 13.6 14.6 1.9 83.8 79.0 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.3 17.0 2.1 84.1 76.3 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.6 12.3 13.1 1.9 85.0 79.3 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.2 14.0 17.4 2.0 82.7 75.8 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.6 11.1 1.7 83.9 77.2 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 13.0 13.8 17.0 2.1 84.5 79.2 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.7 13.2 16.9 1.8 81.7 73.3 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.8 17.3 1.8 81.3 74.2 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 13.0 13.5 15.2 1.9 84.8 78.7 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 13.1 14.7 17.1 2.5 85.9 81.0 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.9 12.2 13.2 1.7 80.9 78.4 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 13.5 16.4 17.7 2.6 85.8 81.7 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 11.7 12.3 16.0 2.5 89.2 83.8 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 10.5 11.3 12.4 1.7 83.7 77.7 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.6 14.3 17.9 2.3 84.2 78.2 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------